“Growth: A Reckoning” by Daniel Susskind

This analysis refines Pinker’s in some respects concerning economic progress, but also contrasts with his in being less unconditionally optimistic about the future. The first part is focused on the history of economic development and particularly why it was that economic growth took off so spectacularly at the start of the nineteenth century? The answer is in one sense straight forward – it was due essentially to scientific and technological development that enabled vast amounts of new wealth to be created. But he then goes on to explore why the technological breakthroughs happened when and where (England first of course) they did. This takes him to a discussion of the importance of new ideas, and hence to debates about the circumstances that enable new ideas to be thought up – cultural, geographical and institutional factors all contributing.

He then goes on to focus on the implications of the super-charged levels of international economic growth we have seen in our more recent era of globalisation. In the main these are positive of course, and Susskind gives all the statistics on poverty reduction, education, health and life expectancy to prove it. So far, very similar to Pinker, and just as compelling. He then takes his analysis in a different direction by acknowledging that there have been big drawbacks too, and that there are losers as well as winners from the growth trajectory who have paid a heavy price and have completely legitimate grievances that should be taken into account when thinking about the future. He discusses the rising inequality, environmental damage, growing work insecurity, community dislocation and political instability that our addiction to economic growth has brought with it. These, he argues, are trade-offs that we have accepted as the price for the technological choices made to fuel growth.

The second half of the book then discusses solutions. He attacks people who argue for ‘de-growth’ in all its forms very compellingly indeed. Pursuing such a strategy would be disastrous, throwing into reverse everything humanity has achieves in the past two centuries. But he also advocates for an approach which takes account of the trade offs far more than is currently the case. He argues that we may need to accept less growth or a slower rate of growth to deal with the negative consequences more effectively. I was not so convinced by this as I tend to the Pinker view that ongoing technological progress can only happen if growth continues, and that it is in technology that the real long-term solutions are to be found. But the sections on the type of growth that need to be fostered were very well argued. The need is to switch away from growth that results from ever greater exploitation of finite natural resources and towards that rooted in the generation of new ideas – which are infinite. To that end he argues for pragmatic public policy interventions aimed at promoting greater equality of opportunity, reduction of bureaucracy and targeted pump-priming of technological progress.

Overall while there are some omissions from the analysis and a rather tedious section focused on how we calculate GDP technically, this is a very well-written and very comprehensible guide to our current economic condition and to thinking about it. Very well worth reading.